pubg loot boxes
A look at the expected value and profit/loss for certain loot boxes from PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds using historical price data obtained using the Steam Community api.
how to calculate
The amount each item in the loot box adds to the return is determined by its market price (minus the buyer premium) multiplied by the probability of obtaining that item from the crate.
This does not address any discount that needs to be applied to the "win". Steam wallet values cannot be withdrawn. They must be used on Steam platform.
| Item name | Item probability | Market price (avg) | Buyer premium | Sale net | Item return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo Pants (Beige) | 0.2 | $0.03 | $0.02 | $0.01 | 0.0018 |
| East Erangel Police Shirt | 0.045 | $0.187 | $0.02 | $0.16 | 0.0072 |
| Sweater and Dress Shirt (Beige) | 0.2 | $0.063 | $0.02 | $0.04 | 0.008 |
| Fancy Shoes | 0.2 | $0.056 | $0.02 | $0.04 | 0.008 |
| Vikendi Elite Attendant Shoes | 0.2 | $0.05 | $0.02 | $0.03 | 0.006 |
| Vikendi Elite Attendant Uniform | 0.0032 | $12.166 | $1.59 | $10.58 | 0.033856 |
| Baby Bear Face Mask | 0.013 | $13.7 | $1.79 | $11.91 | 0.15483 |
| Baby Bear Face Shirt | 0.045 | $2.899 | $0.38 | $2.52 | 0.1134 |
| Constable's Pants | 0.045 | $0.083 | $0.02 | $0.06 | 0.00315 |
| Constable's Hat | 0.013 | $0.793 | $0.1 | $0.69 | 0.00897 |
| Constable's Gloves | 0.025 | $3.063 | $0.4 | $2.66 | 0.0665 |
| Vikendi Elite Attendant Hat | 0.006 | $4.936 | $0.64 | $4.29 | 0.02574 |
| Constable's Coat | 0.0032 | $4.733 | $0.62 | $4.12 | 0.013184 |
selected crates
aviator crate
price range
$0.11 - $0.38
expected value range
$0.03 - $0.03
sell is best play
0.9967793881
biker crate
price range
$0.03 - $0.196
expected value range
$0.03 - $0.12
sell is best play
0.4263508512
desperado crate
price range
$0.03 - $0.127
expected value range
$0.19 - $1.51
sell is best play
0.9987699877
east erangel police crate
price range
$0.03 - $0.102
expected value range
$0.31 - $1.35
sell is best play
1
equinox crate
price range
$0.03 - $0.031
expected value range
$0.23 - $0.57
sell is best play
1
fever crate
price range
$0.03 - $1.191
expected value range
$0.20 - $5.93
sell is best play
0.9956521739
militia crate
price range
$0.032 - $3.597
expected value range
$0.03 - $1.53
sell is best play
0.5312693498
raider crate
price range
$0.136 - $2.252
expected value range
$0.03 - $0.66
sell is best play
1
